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Coach Report Card
Expected points left on the field on fourth down, attributed to whoever actually coached that game -- not a team's whole season, since teams change coaches mid-year. Endgame situations are excluded (EP-optimal and win-probability-optimal genuinely diverge there, so pricing those plays as "mistakes" isn't valid). A frozen, one-time computation, not updated live -- see Methodology for the full fourth-down pricing model.
EP wasted per game, coaches with at least 48 career games, 2015–2025 (2020 excluded). Worst first.
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1
Jay Gruden
1.43 EP/game · 70 games
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2
Anthony Lynn
1.37 EP/game · 51 games
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3
Bill Belichick
1.35 EP/game · 144 games
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4
Jason Garrett
1.35 EP/game · 83 games
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5
Mike Tomlin
1.33 EP/game · 175 games
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6
Brandon Staley
1.31 EP/game · 49 games
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7
Bruce Arians
1.30 EP/game · 85 games
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8
Chuck Pagano
1.24 EP/game · 48 games
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9
Dennis Allen
1.21 EP/game · 51 games
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10
Mike Zimmer
1.20 EP/game · 102 games
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11
Marvin Lewis
1.18 EP/game · 65 games
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12
John Fox
1.18 EP/game · 48 games
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13
Jim Caldwell
1.17 EP/game · 49 games
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14
Doug Marrone
1.17 EP/game · 53 games
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15
Bill O'Brien
1.16 EP/game · 86 games
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16
Pete Carroll
1.14 EP/game · 156 games
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17
Matt Nagy
1.14 EP/game · 50 games
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18
Todd Bowles
1.13 EP/game · 153 games
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19
Andy Reid
1.12 EP/game · 204 games
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20
Kyle Shanahan
1.10 EP/game · 164 games
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21
Sean McVay
1.08 EP/game · 164 games
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22
Brian Daboll
1.04 EP/game · 70 games
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23
Mike McDaniel
1.04 EP/game · 70 games
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24
Dirk Koetter
1.04 EP/game · 48 games
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25
Ron Rivera
1.04 EP/game · 135 games
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26
Sean Payton
1.04 EP/game · 173 games
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27
DeMeco Ryans
1.02 EP/game · 74 games
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28
Jim Harbaugh
1.02 EP/game · 53 games
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29
Frank Reich
0.98 EP/game · 71 games
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30
Mike McCarthy
0.95 EP/game · 154 games
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31
John Harbaugh
0.95 EP/game · 189 games
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32
Doug Pederson
0.94 EP/game · 123 games
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33
Zac Taylor
0.93 EP/game · 124 games
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34
Kevin O'Connell
0.89 EP/game · 87 games
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35
Mike Vrabel
0.87 EP/game · 125 games
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36
Dan Quinn
0.86 EP/game · 139 games
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37
Mike Macdonald
0.86 EP/game · 54 games
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38
Arthur Smith
0.85 EP/game · 51 games
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39
Matt Eberflus
0.83 EP/game · 51 games
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40
Kliff Kingsbury
0.81 EP/game · 51 games
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41
Shane Steichen
0.80 EP/game · 68 games
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42
Jack Del Rio
0.79 EP/game · 49 games
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43
Sean McDermott
0.79 EP/game · 162 games
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44
Dan Campbell
0.79 EP/game · 106 games
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45
Adam Gase
0.78 EP/game · 65 games
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46
Matt LaFleur
0.78 EP/game · 125 games
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47
Robert Saleh
0.76 EP/game · 85 games
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48
Kevin Stefanski
0.75 EP/game · 86 games
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49
Jonathan Gannon
0.71 EP/game · 68 games
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50
Nick Sirianni
0.67 EP/game · 112 games
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51
Raheem Morris
0.60 EP/game · 51 games
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52
Dave Canales
0.46 EP/game · 52 games
Total EP wasted, 2025 season only. Worst first.
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1
DeMeco Ryans
33.1 EP total
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2
Jim Harbaugh
29.9 EP total
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3
Mike Vrabel
29.4 EP total
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4
Mike Macdonald
29.0 EP total
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5
Sean McVay
28.1 EP total
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6
Sean Payton
25.9 EP total
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7
Mike Tomlin
23.8 EP total
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8
Kyle Shanahan
21.2 EP total
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9
Matt LaFleur
21.2 EP total
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10
Todd Bowles
20.7 EP total
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11
Andy Reid
20.6 EP total
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12
Brian Daboll
20.6 EP total
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13
Ben Johnson
20.3 EP total
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14
Brian Schottenheimer
19.6 EP total
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15
Kevin O'Connell
19.5 EP total
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16
Brian Callahan
19.0 EP total
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17
Raheem Morris
18.0 EP total
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18
Dan Quinn
17.3 EP total
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19
John Harbaugh
17.3 EP total
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20
Liam Coen
17.2 EP total
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21
Aaron Glenn
17.1 EP total
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22
Jonathan Gannon
15.6 EP total
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23
Kellen Moore
15.4 EP total
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24
Shane Steichen
14.9 EP total
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25
Nick Sirianni
14.9 EP total
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26
Dave Canales
14.2 EP total
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27
Sean McDermott
13.9 EP total
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28
Dan Campbell
13.9 EP total
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29
Zac Taylor
13.9 EP total
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30
Mike McDaniel
13.1 EP total
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31
Kevin Stefanski
13.0 EP total
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32
Pete Carroll
10.0 EP total