A Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season and playoffs, using the same win-probability model behind every prediction on this site, run recursively across a simulated bracket, thousands of times.

30,000 simulated seasons, run 2026-11-03. Team strength is frozen at each team's form as of that date and does not update as real games get played. This is a preseason-style snapshot, not a live weekly page like Standings. See How It Works for what else is simplified (playoff tiebreakers, playoff-game conditions).

How It Works →

Team Reach Super Bowl Win It All 2025 Record

Los Angeles Rams 29.1% 17.4% 4-4 Buffalo Bills 28.1% 16.4% 6-1 Jacksonville Jaguars 22.3% 12.1% 5-2 New England Patriots 17.5% 9.3% 5-3 Seattle Seahawks 16.9% 7.9% 4-4 Green Bay Packers 11.2% 5.2% 5-3 Cincinnati Bengals 10.0% 4.5% 5-2 Detroit Lions 9.4% 4.6% 5-2 Denver Broncos 6.6% 2.7% 6-2 San Francisco 49ers 5.9% 2.4% 6-1 Chicago Bears 5.4% 2.4% 6-2 Houston Texans 5.4% 2.5% 2-5 Baltimore Ravens 3.8% 1.6% 4-4 New York Giants 3.5% 1.5% 4-2 New Orleans Saints 3.4% 1.2% 2-5 Dallas Cowboys 3.3% 1.5% 3-5 Atlanta Falcons 3.1% 1.3% 3-5 Philadelphia Eagles 2.9% 1.1% 2-6 Kansas City Chiefs 2.4% 1.0% 5-2 Carolina Panthers 2.1% 0.8% 3-4 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.7% 0.6% 6-2 Minnesota Vikings 1.2% 0.5% 6-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.2% 0.5% 3-5 Washington Commanders 1.1% 0.4% 2-4 Indianapolis Colts 0.9% 0.3% 2-6 Los Angeles Chargers 0.5% 0.1% 0-7 Las Vegas Raiders 0.3% 0.1% 4-4 Miami Dolphins 0.2% 0.1% 1-6 Arizona Cardinals 0.1% 0.0% 3-5 Cleveland Browns 0.1% 0.0% 5-3 Tennessee Titans 0.1% 0.0% 1-7 New York Jets 0.0% 0.0% 2-6

"Reach Super Bowl" sums to 200% league-wide (100% per conference, exactly one AFC and one NFC team gets there). "Win It All" sums to 100%: one team wins every simulation. Comparing these against an outside "Super Bowl odds" chart only lines up if it's using the same one of the two.

Buffalo Bills

8.1%

Los Angeles Rams

Jacksonville Jaguars

6.7%

Los Angeles Rams

New England Patriots

5.1%

Los Angeles Rams

Buffalo Bills

4.9%

Seattle Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars

3.8%

Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills

3.2%

Green Bay Packers

Cincinnati Bengals

3.0%

Los Angeles Rams

New England Patriots

2.7%

Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills

2.6%

Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars

2.4%

Green Bay Packers

An independent check, not a claim of being right: this project's own model, run the same way, against a well-known outside preseason graphic. Disagreement is expected: different model families reasonably see the league differently.