Value Picks — Week 9

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CLE @ NO

Model: NO 75.7% Line: NO 57.3% 18.4-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ BAL

Model: JAX 57.1% Line: JAX 73.6% 16.5-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ IND

Model: DAL 50.9% Line: DAL 67.2% 16.3-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 55.1% Line: DEN 58.8% 13.9-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ MIA

Model: DET 62.0% Line: DET 69.8% 7.8-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ NE

Model: NE 66.4% Line: NE 58.8% 7.6-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ PHI

Model: NYG 53.0% Line: NYG 60.2% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ LAC

Model: HOU 55.9% Line: HOU 63.1% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ KC

Model: KC 78.3% Line: KC 75.9% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ MIN

Model: BUF 62.4% Line: BUF 60.2% 2.2-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SEA

Model: SEA 78.7% Line: SEA 80.3% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ WAS

Model: LA 67.3% Line: LA 65.8% 1.5-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ SF

Model: SF 76.2% Line: SF 77.1% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ ATL

Model: CIN 59.3% Line: CIN 58.8% 0.5-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CHI

Model: CHI 67.4% Line: CHI 67.2% 0.2-pt gap vs. the line