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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-37-C.Lewis-Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP