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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to CIN 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.19 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model