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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 2-M.Nugent 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model