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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to LV 30, Center-46-C.Harris. 38-T.Carrie to LV 41 for 11 yards (59-E.Lamur).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP