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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 33

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree to CIN 46 for 4 yards (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.58 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model