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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 33

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Shotgun) 14-M.McGloin pass short middle to 89-A.Cooper to CIN 25 for 14 yards (21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model