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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 3
Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0
What Actually Happened
(7:21) 32-J.Hill left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.22 EP
KICK
+1.72 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
