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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP