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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 7, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model