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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 16

New York Jets 21 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model