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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 52

New York Jets 31 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 4-R.Quigley punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model