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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 10 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Gabriel.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model