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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 86

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to DET 40, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-G.Tate to LAC 46 for 14 yards (52-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 86, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model