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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 2-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP