Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(8:42) 5-M.Scifres punts 58 yards to DET 27, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-G.Tate pushed ob at DET 47 for 20 yards (89-L.Green).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model