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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 5

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 22-M.Forte right tackle to GB 4 for 1 yard (21-H.Clinton-Dix). Measurement.

The Three Options

GO +3.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model