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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model