4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 26

Chicago Bears 13 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model