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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 10

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model