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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 2

Chicago Bears 16 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model