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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 24

Chicago Bears 16 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 83-M.Bennett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP