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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(8:04) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP