Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(11:19) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model