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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 87

Buffalo Bills 24 – Indianapolis Colts 8

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to IND 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-P.Dorsett MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 24. 15-P.Dorsett to IND 25 for 1 yard (33-R.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 87, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model