Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 8 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to BUF 29, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen. Penalty on BUF-26-A.Dixon, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model