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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right intended for 81-A.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Williams (39-M.Butler) at BUF 31. 23-A.Williams pushed ob at IND 43 for 26 yards (38-T.Varga). Pass tipped in coverage before INT.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -0.81 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model