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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to IND 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model