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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to IND 8, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 15-P.Dorsett.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model