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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 72-J.Linkenbach reported in as eligible. 34-D.Williams left end to WAS 12 for no gain (91-R.Kerrigan).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model