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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 4-M.Darr punts 63 yards to WAS 6, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 19 for 13 yards (42-S.Paysinger). PENALTY on MIA-28-Bo.McCain, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model