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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 3-A.Franks 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP