Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 85

Washington Commanders 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

(10:38) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to MIA 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-J.Landry for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model