Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 17 – Washington Commanders 10

(5:08) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to WAS 31, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model