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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 20

Washington Commanders 10 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 86-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP