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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to WAS 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 10 yards (30-Z.Bowman; 31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.90 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP