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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 27

Washington Commanders 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:32) 2-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP