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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 1-C.Parkey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model