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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 23 for 12 yards (36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on PHI-31-B.Maxwell, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11. Penalty on PHI-26-W.Thurmond, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model