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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 8-D.Jones punts 31 yards to PHI 46, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-46-J.Dorenbos.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.53 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP