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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model