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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.64 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP