Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to ATL 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-E.Weems to ATL 46 for 11 yards (47-T.Burton). PENALTY on ATL-30-C.Godfrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model