Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

(2:00) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to PHI 4, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 14 for 10 yards (80-L.Toilolo).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.23 EP
56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -2.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model