Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(3:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to PHI 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 47 for 15 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model