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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(:07) 8-J.Scobee 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model