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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 67

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 11

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-A.Brown to PIT 27 for 3 yards (18-M.Slater; 55-J.Freeny).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model