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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 8-J.Scobee 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model